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Thunder Bay Chill vs Ann Arbor — USL League Two 2018

Thunder Bay Chill
Thunder Bay Chilladvanced
AET
5 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor
7/21/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Quarter-finalsValley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Thunder Bay Chill40%
×Draw23%
Ann Arbor37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thunder Bay Chill
1.75
Ann Arbor
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 26 away

creates per match

Thunder Bay Chill
1.87
Ann Arbor
2.08

allows per match

Thunder Bay Chill
1.30
Ann Arbor
1.62

finishing

Thunder Bay Chill+0.00on par
Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thunder Bay Chill ↓

Ann Arbor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Thunder Bay Chill or draw
63%
Thunder Bay Chill or Ann Arbor
77%
Draw or Ann Arbor
60%

Winning margin

Thunder Bay Chill wins by 2+
21%
Ann Arbor wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Thunder Bay Chill 1+ goals
83%
Thunder Bay Chill 2+ goals
52%
Thunder Bay Chill 3+ goals
25%
Ann Arbor 1+ goals
82%
Ann Arbor 2+ goals
50%
Ann Arbor 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Thunder Bay Chill (draw refunded)
52%
Ann Arbor (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thunder Bay Chill at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Ann Arbor away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thunder Bay Chill attack 1.87 + Ann Arbor defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ann Arbor attack 2.08 + Thunder Bay Chill defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Thunder Bay Chill scores more
40%
level
23%
Ann Arbor scores more
37%

Thunder Bay Chill at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Thunder Bay Chill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thunder Bay Chill vs Ann Arbor

Thunder Bay Chill beat Ann Arbor 5-3 in USL League Two on July 21, 2023.

The match was played at Valley Stadium in West Des Moines, Iowa.