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Thun W vs Servette Chênois W — AXA Women’s Super League 2020

Thun W
Thun W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Servette Chênois W
Servette Chênois W
2/8/2025AXA Women’s Super LeagueAXA Women’s Super League · Round 14Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Thun W10%
×Draw16%
Servette Chênois W73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thun W
0.78
Servette Chênois W
2.42

Servette Chênois W creates 210% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 70 away

creates per match

Thun W
1.00
Servette Chênois W
2.24

allows per match

Thun W
2.61
Servette Chênois W
0.57

finishing

Thun W+0.00on par
Servette Chênois W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thun W ↓

Servette Chênois W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–212%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Thun W or draw
27%
Thun W or Servette Chênois W
84%
Draw or Servette Chênois W
90%

Winning margin

Thun W wins by 2+
3%
Servette Chênois W wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Thun W 1+ goals
54%
Thun W 2+ goals
18%
Thun W 3+ goals
4%
Servette Chênois W 1+ goals
91%
Servette Chênois W 2+ goals
69%
Servette Chênois W 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Thun W (draw refunded)
12%
Servette Chênois W (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thun W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.61 · 33 matches

Servette Chênois W away — creates 2.24, concedes 0.57 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thun W attack 1.00 + Servette Chênois W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Servette Chênois W attack 2.24 + Thun W defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Thun W scores more
10%
level
16%
Servette Chênois W scores more
73%

Servette Chênois W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Servette Chênois W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AXA Women’s Super League: Thun W 0–3 Servette Chênois W

Servette Chênois W beat Thun W 3-0 in AXA Women’s Super League on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stockhorn Arena in Thun.