Thun II 3–3 Vevey Sports: Result & Stats

Thun II

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Vevey Sports

5/1/2022

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Thun II55%

×Draw21%

Vevey Sports24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thun IIExpected goals in this matchVevey Sports

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.39

Thun II

2.16

Vevey Sports

1.39

Thun II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 56 away

2.85

creates per match

1.63

1.15

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Thun II

2.85

Vevey Sports

1.63

allows per match

Thun II

1.15

Vevey Sports

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thun II+0.00on par

Vevey Sports+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thun II ↓

Vevey Sports →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Thun II or draw

76%

Thun II or Vevey Sports

79%

Draw or Vevey Sports

45%

Winning margin

Thun II wins by 2+

33%

Vevey Sports wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Thun II 1+ goals

88%

Thun II 2+ goals

63%

Thun II 3+ goals

36%

Vevey Sports 1+ goals

75%

Vevey Sports 2+ goals

40%

Vevey Sports 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Thun II (draw refunded)

69%

Vevey Sports (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thun II at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Vevey Sports away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thun II attack 2.85 + Vevey Sports defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.16

Vevey Sports attack 1.63 + Thun II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Thun II scores more

55%

level

21%

Vevey Sports scores more

24%

Thun II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Thun II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff