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Thun II vs Terre Sainte — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Thun II
Thun II
FT
2 – 0
Terre Sainte
Terre Sainte
10/16/20211. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Thun II65%
×Draw18%
Terre Sainte17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thun II
2.50
Terre Sainte
1.19

Thun II creates 110% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 57 away

creates per match

Thun II
2.85
Terre Sainte
1.23

allows per match

Thun II
1.15
Terre Sainte
2.16

finishing

Thun II+0.00on par
Terre Sainte+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thun II ↓

Terre Sainte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Thun II or draw
83%
Thun II or Terre Sainte
82%
Draw or Terre Sainte
35%

Winning margin

Thun II wins by 2+
44%
Terre Sainte wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Thun II 1+ goals
92%
Thun II 2+ goals
71%
Thun II 3+ goals
45%
Terre Sainte 1+ goals
70%
Terre Sainte 2+ goals
33%
Terre Sainte 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Thun II (draw refunded)
80%
Terre Sainte (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thun II at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Terre Sainte away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thun II attack 2.85 + Terre Sainte defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.50

Terre Sainte attack 1.23 + Thun II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Thun II scores more
65%
level
18%
Terre Sainte scores more
17%

Thun II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Thun II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thun II vs Terre Sainte

Thun II beat Terre Sainte 2-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stockhorn Arena in Thun.