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Thun II vs Meyrin — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Thun II
Thun II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Meyrin
Meyrin
5/21/20221. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Stadion Lachen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Thun II56%
×Draw20%
Meyrin24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thun II
2.27
Meyrin
1.44

Thun II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

creates per match

Thun II
2.85
Meyrin
1.74

allows per match

Thun II
1.15
Meyrin
1.68

finishing

Thun II+0.00on par
Meyrin+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thun II ↓

Meyrin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Thun II or draw
76%
Thun II or Meyrin
80%
Draw or Meyrin
44%

Winning margin

Thun II wins by 2+
35%
Meyrin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Thun II 1+ goals
90%
Thun II 2+ goals
66%
Thun II 3+ goals
39%
Meyrin 1+ goals
76%
Meyrin 2+ goals
42%
Meyrin 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Thun II (draw refunded)
70%
Meyrin (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thun II at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Meyrin away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.68 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thun II attack 2.85 + Meyrin defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.27

Meyrin attack 1.74 + Thun II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Thun II scores more
56%
level
20%
Meyrin scores more
24%

Thun II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Thun II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thun II 2 – 2 Meyrin

Thun II and Meyrin drew 2-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lachen in Thun.