Thun II 8–0 Martigny Sports: Result & Stats

Thun II

FT

8 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Martigny Sports

3/13/2022

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Thun II66%

×Draw18%

Martigny Sports17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thun IIExpected goals in this matchMartigny Sports

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.21

Thun II

2.54

Martigny Sports

1.21

Thun II creates 110% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 57 away

2.85

creates per match

1.26

1.15

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Thun II

2.85

Martigny Sports

1.26

allows per match

Thun II

1.15

Martigny Sports

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thun II+0.00on par

Martigny Sports+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thun II ↓

Martigny Sports →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Thun II or draw

83%

Thun II or Martigny Sports

82%

Draw or Martigny Sports

34%

Winning margin

Thun II wins by 2+

44%

Martigny Sports wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Thun II 1+ goals

92%

Thun II 2+ goals

72%

Thun II 3+ goals

46%

Martigny Sports 1+ goals

70%

Martigny Sports 2+ goals

34%

Martigny Sports 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Thun II (draw refunded)

80%

Martigny Sports (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thun II at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Martigny Sports away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.23 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thun II attack 2.85 + Martigny Sports defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.54

Martigny Sports attack 1.26 + Thun II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Thun II scores more

66%

level

18%

Martigny Sports scores more

17%

Thun II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Thun II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff