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Thun II vs La Chaux-de-Fonds — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Thun II
Thun II
FT
4 – 1
La Chaux-de-Fonds
La Chaux-de-Fonds
9/11/20211. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Thun II68%
×Draw17%
La Chaux-de-Fonds15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thun II
2.58
La Chaux-de-Fonds
1.13

Thun II creates 128% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

creates per match

Thun II
2.85
La Chaux-de-Fonds
1.11

allows per match

Thun II
1.15
La Chaux-de-Fonds
2.30

finishing

Thun II+0.00on par
La Chaux-de-Fonds+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thun II ↓

La Chaux-de-Fonds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Thun II or draw
85%
Thun II or La Chaux-de-Fonds
83%
Draw or La Chaux-de-Fonds
32%

Winning margin

Thun II wins by 2+
46%
La Chaux-de-Fonds wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Thun II 1+ goals
92%
Thun II 2+ goals
72%
Thun II 3+ goals
47%
La Chaux-de-Fonds 1+ goals
68%
La Chaux-de-Fonds 2+ goals
31%
La Chaux-de-Fonds 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Thun II (draw refunded)
82%
La Chaux-de-Fonds (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thun II at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

La Chaux-de-Fonds away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.30 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thun II attack 2.85 + La Chaux-de-Fonds defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.58

La Chaux-de-Fonds attack 1.11 + Thun II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Thun II scores more
68%
level
17%
La Chaux-de-Fonds scores more
15%

Thun II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Thun II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Thun II 4–1 La Chaux-de-Fonds

Thun II beat La Chaux-de-Fonds 4-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stockhorn Arena in Thun.