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Thróttur Vogar vs Sindri — 2. Deild 2018

Thróttur Vogar
Thróttur Vogar
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sindri
Sindri
7/29/20232. Deild2. Deild · Round 14Vogabæjarvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Thróttur Vogar69%
×Draw17%
Sindri14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thróttur Vogar
2.50
Sindri
1.05

Thróttur Vogar creates 138% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 12 away

creates per match

Thróttur Vogar
1.92
Sindri
1.08

allows per match

Thróttur Vogar
1.02
Sindri
3.08

finishing

Thróttur Vogar+0.00on par
Sindri+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thróttur Vogar ↓

Sindri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Thróttur Vogar or draw
86%
Thróttur Vogar or Sindri
83%
Draw or Sindri
31%

Winning margin

Thróttur Vogar wins by 2+
46%
Sindri wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Thróttur Vogar 1+ goals
92%
Thróttur Vogar 2+ goals
71%
Thróttur Vogar 3+ goals
45%
Sindri 1+ goals
65%
Sindri 2+ goals
28%
Sindri 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Thróttur Vogar (draw refunded)
83%
Sindri (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thróttur Vogar at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

Sindri away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thróttur Vogar attack 1.92 + Sindri defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.50

Sindri attack 1.08 + Thróttur Vogar defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Thróttur Vogar scores more
69%
level
17%
Sindri scores more
14%

Thróttur Vogar at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Thróttur Vogar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Thróttur Vogar 4–0 Sindri

Thróttur Vogar beat Sindri 4-0 in 2. Deild on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Vogabæjarvöllur in Vogar.