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Thróttur Vogar vs Kórdrengir — 1. Deild 2018

Thróttur Vogar
Thróttur Vogar
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Kórdrengir
Kórdrengir
9/17/20221. Deild1. Deild · Round 22Vogabæjarvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Thróttur Vogar23%
×Draw24%
Kórdrengir53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thróttur Vogar
1.00
Kórdrengir
1.66

Kórdrengir creates 66% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

Thróttur Vogar
0.55
Kórdrengir
1.59

allows per match

Thróttur Vogar
1.73
Kórdrengir
1.45

finishing

Thróttur Vogar+0.00on par
Kórdrengir+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thróttur Vogar ↓

Kórdrengir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Thróttur Vogar or draw
47%
Thróttur Vogar or Kórdrengir
76%
Draw or Kórdrengir
77%

Winning margin

Thróttur Vogar wins by 2+
8%
Kórdrengir wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Thróttur Vogar 1+ goals
63%
Thróttur Vogar 2+ goals
26%
Thróttur Vogar 3+ goals
8%
Kórdrengir 1+ goals
81%
Kórdrengir 2+ goals
49%
Kórdrengir 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Thróttur Vogar (draw refunded)
30%
Kórdrengir (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thróttur Vogar at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Kórdrengir away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thróttur Vogar attack 0.55 + Kórdrengir defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kórdrengir attack 1.59 + Thróttur Vogar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Thróttur Vogar scores more
23%
level
24%
Kórdrengir scores more
53%

Kórdrengir at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kórdrengir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Thróttur Vogar 0–3 Kórdrengir

Kórdrengir beat Thróttur Vogar 3-0 in 1. Deild on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Vogabæjarvöllur in Vogar.