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Thróttur Vogar vs KF — 2. Deild 2018

Thróttur Vogar
Thróttur Vogar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
KF
KF
A. A. Robertsson 2'
5/27/20232. Deild2. Deild · Round 4Vogabæjarvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Thróttur Vogar59%
×Draw20%
KF21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thróttur Vogar
2.25
KF
1.27

Thróttur Vogar creates 77% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 55 away

creates per match

Thróttur Vogar
1.92
KF
1.53

allows per match

Thróttur Vogar
1.02
KF
2.58

finishing

Thróttur Vogar+0.00on par
KF+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thróttur Vogar ↓

KF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Thróttur Vogar or draw
79%
Thróttur Vogar or KF
80%
Draw or KF
41%

Winning margin

Thróttur Vogar wins by 2+
37%
KF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Thróttur Vogar 1+ goals
89%
Thróttur Vogar 2+ goals
65%
Thróttur Vogar 3+ goals
39%
KF 1+ goals
72%
KF 2+ goals
36%
KF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Thróttur Vogar (draw refunded)
74%
KF (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thróttur Vogar at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

KF away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.58 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thróttur Vogar attack 1.92 + KF defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.25

KF attack 1.53 + Thróttur Vogar defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Thróttur Vogar scores more
59%
level
20%
KF scores more
21%

Thróttur Vogar at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Thróttur Vogar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
A. A. Robertsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Thróttur Vogar 1–0 KF

Thróttur Vogar beat KF 1-0 in 2. Deild on May 27, 2023.

Goals: A. A. Robertsson (2').

The match was played at Vogabæjarvöllur in Vogar.