Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Throttur Reykjavik vs Valur Reykjavik — League #168 2026

Throttur Reykjavik
Throttur Reykjavik
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
S. Bjornsson 57'
K. Kristjansson 34'
2/16/2024League #168League #168 · Group Stage - 2AVIS völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Throttur Reykjavik54%
×Draw21%
Valur Reykjavik25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Throttur Reykjavik
2.13
Valur Reykjavik
1.42

Throttur Reykjavik creates 50% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Throttur Reykjavik
2.25
Valur Reykjavik
1.33

allows per match

Throttur Reykjavik
1.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.00

finishing

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par
Valur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Throttur Reykjavik ↓

Valur Reykjavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Throttur Reykjavik or draw
75%
Throttur Reykjavik or Valur Reykjavik
79%
Draw or Valur Reykjavik
46%

Winning margin

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+
32%
Valur Reykjavik wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals
88%
Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals
63%
Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals
35%
Valur Reykjavik 1+ goals
76%
Valur Reykjavik 2+ goals
41%
Valur Reykjavik 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)
68%
Valur Reykjavik (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Throttur Reykjavik at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Valur Reykjavik away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Throttur Reykjavik attack 2.25 + Valur Reykjavik defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Valur Reykjavik attack 1.33 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Throttur Reykjavik scores more
54%
level
21%
Valur Reykjavik scores more
25%

Throttur Reykjavik at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Throttur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
K. Kristjansson
45'
B. Stefansson
46'
B. Heimisson← B. Heimisson
50'
V. Hafthorsson← G. Hilmarsson
57'
S. Bjornsson
62'
K. Sigurdsson← B. Saevarsson
62'
L. Heimisson← L. Heimisson
62'
T. Haraldsson← A. Palsson
73'
S. Hewson← I. Ivarsson
73'
I. Abella← B. Hardarson
73'
E. Helgason← E. Helgason
80'
I. Ivarsson
90'
V. Steinarsson← V. Steinarsson
90+2'
H. Eyjolfsson
90+2'
G. Hilmarsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #168: Throttur Reykjavik 2–0 Valur Reykjavik

Throttur Reykjavik beat Valur Reykjavik 2-0 in League #168 on February 16, 2024.

Goals: K. Kristjansson (34'), S. Bjornsson (57').

The match was played at AVIS völlurinn in Reykjavík.