Throttur Reykjavik 18–0 Stokkseyri: Result & Stats

Throttur Reykjavik

18 – 0

HT: 9 – 0

Stokkseyri

3/31/2023

Cup · 1st RoundÞróttheimar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Throttur Reykjavik92%

×Draw5%

Stokkseyri3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Throttur ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchStokkseyri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

6.17

1.27

Throttur Reykjavik

6.17

Stokkseyri

1.27

Throttur Reykjavik creates 386% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

3.00

creates per match

1.00

1.54

allows per match

9.33

creates per match

Throttur Reykjavik

3.00

Stokkseyri

1.00

allows per match

Throttur Reykjavik

1.54

Stokkseyri

9.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Stokkseyri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over96
Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Throttur Reykjavik ↓

Stokkseyri →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–01%

1–11%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–02%

2–12%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 45% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

96%4%3.5

89%11%4.5

76%24%

Double chance

Throttur Reykjavik or draw

97%

Throttur Reykjavik or Stokkseyri

95%

Draw or Stokkseyri

Winning margin

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+

83%

Stokkseyri wins by 2+

Team goals

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals

100%

Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals

97%

Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals

91%

Stokkseyri 1+ goals

72%

Stokkseyri 2+ goals

36%

Stokkseyri 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

97%

Stokkseyri (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Throttur Reykjavik at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Stokkseyri away — creates 1.00, concedes 9.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Throttur Reykjavik attack 3.00 + Stokkseyri defence 9.33 → ÷2 → 6.17

Stokkseyri attack 1.00 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 92%?"

Throttur Reykjavik scores more

92%

level

Stokkseyri scores more

Throttur Reykjavik at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Throttur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff