Throttur Reykjavik 0–0 Leiknir F.: Result & Stats

Throttur Reykjavik

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leiknir F.

9/2/2020

1. Deild · Round 15Eimskipsvöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Throttur Reykjavik57%

×Draw22%

Leiknir F.21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Throttur ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchLeiknir F.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.15

Throttur Reykjavik

2.01

Leiknir F.

1.15

Throttur Reykjavik creates 75% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 10 away

1.92

creates per match

0.50

1.79

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Throttur Reykjavik

1.92

Leiknir F.

0.50

allows per match

Throttur Reykjavik

1.79

Leiknir F.

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Leiknir F.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Throttur Reykjavik ↓

Leiknir F. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Throttur Reykjavik or draw

79%

Throttur Reykjavik or Leiknir F.

78%

Draw or Leiknir F.

43%

Winning margin

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+

34%

Leiknir F. wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals

87%

Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals

59%

Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals

32%

Leiknir F. 1+ goals

68%

Leiknir F. 2+ goals

32%

Leiknir F. 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

73%

Leiknir F. (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Throttur Reykjavik at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.79 · 84 matches

Leiknir F. away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Throttur Reykjavik attack 1.92 + Leiknir F. defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.01

Leiknir F. attack 0.50 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Throttur Reykjavik scores more

57%

level

22%

Leiknir F. scores more

21%

Throttur Reykjavik at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Throttur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff