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Throttur Reykjavik vs Hafnir — Cup 2019

Throttur Reykjavik
Throttur Reykjavik
FT
7 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Hafnir
Hafnir
4/5/2025CupCup · 2nd RoundAVIS völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Throttur Reykjavik78%
×Draw12%
Hafnir10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Throttur Reykjavik
3.70
Hafnir
1.37

Throttur Reykjavik creates 170% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Throttur Reykjavik
3.00
Hafnir
1.20

allows per match

Throttur Reykjavik
1.54
Hafnir
4.40

finishing

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par
Hafnir+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Throttur Reykjavik ↓

Hafnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Throttur Reykjavik or draw
90%
Throttur Reykjavik or Hafnir
88%
Draw or Hafnir
22%

Winning margin

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+
60%
Hafnir wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals
97%
Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals
87%
Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals
69%
Hafnir 1+ goals
75%
Hafnir 2+ goals
40%
Hafnir 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)
88%
Hafnir (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Throttur Reykjavik at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Hafnir away — creates 1.20, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Throttur Reykjavik attack 3.00 + Hafnir defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 3.70

Hafnir attack 1.20 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Throttur Reykjavik scores more
78%
level
12%
Hafnir scores more
10%

Throttur Reykjavik at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Throttur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Throttur Reykjavik vs Hafnir

Throttur Reykjavik beat Hafnir 7-0 in Cup on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at AVIS völlurinn in Reykjavík.