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Throttur Reykjavik vs Fylkir — 1. Deild 2026

Throttur Reykjavik
Throttur Reykjavik
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fylkir
Fylkir
V. Sigurdsson 69'
K. Kristjansson 35'
A. Eythorsson 65'
7/29/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 15AVIS völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Throttur Reykjavik39%
×Draw22%
Fylkir39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Throttur Reykjavik
1.75
Fylkir
1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

creates per match

Throttur Reykjavik
1.95
Fylkir
2.00

allows per match

Throttur Reykjavik
1.48
Fylkir
1.54

finishing

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par
Fylkir+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Throttur Reykjavik ↓

Fylkir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Throttur Reykjavik or draw
61%
Throttur Reykjavik or Fylkir
78%
Draw or Fylkir
61%

Winning margin

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+
20%
Fylkir wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals
83%
Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals
52%
Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals
25%
Fylkir 1+ goals
82%
Fylkir 2+ goals
52%
Fylkir 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)
50%
Fylkir (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Throttur Reykjavik at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

Fylkir away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Throttur Reykjavik attack 1.95 + Fylkir defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fylkir attack 2.00 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Throttur Reykjavik scores more
39%
level
22%
Fylkir scores more
39%

Throttur Reykjavik at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Throttur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
R. Sveinsson
25'
E. Asmundsson
35'
K. Kristjansson
62'
T. Gunnarsson← T. Gunnarsson
62'
E. Wohler← E. Wohler
65'
A. Eythorsson↳ A. Asthorsson
68'
V. Hafthorsson← V. Hafthorsson
69'
V. Sigurdsson
74'
V. Sigurdsson← V. Sigurdsson
86'
N. Thorhallsson← K. Kristjansson
86'
M. Hilmarsson← M. Hilmarsson
90+3'
R. Sveinsson
90+3'
R. Sveinsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Throttur Reykjavik 2–1 Fylkir

Throttur Reykjavik beat Fylkir 2-1 in 1. Deild on July 29, 2025.

Goals: K. Kristjansson (35'), A. Eythorsson (65'), V. Sigurdsson (69').

The match was played at AVIS völlurinn in Reykjavík.