Throttur Reykjavik 0–3 Breidablik: Result & Stats

Throttur Reykjavik

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Breidablik

S. Sigurðarson 90+5'

K. Olsen 57'

V. Einarsson 31'

5/18/2023

Cup · Round of 16AVIS völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Throttur Reykjavik25%

×Draw19%

Breidablik56%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Throttur ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchBreidablik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.50

Throttur Reykjavik

1.63

Breidablik

2.50

Breidablik creates 53% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.75

creates per match

3.50

1.50

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Throttur Reykjavik

2.75

Breidablik

3.50

allows per match

Throttur Reykjavik

1.50

Breidablik

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Breidablik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Throttur Reykjavik ↓

Breidablik →

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Throttur Reykjavik or draw

44%

Throttur Reykjavik or Breidablik

81%

Draw or Breidablik

75%

Winning margin

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+

11%

Breidablik wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals

80%

Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals

48%

Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals

22%

Breidablik 1+ goals

92%

Breidablik 2+ goals

71%

Breidablik 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

31%

Breidablik (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Throttur Reykjavik at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Breidablik away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Throttur Reykjavik attack 2.75 + Breidablik defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Breidablik attack 3.50 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Throttur Reykjavik scores more

25%

level

19%

Breidablik scores more

56%

Breidablik at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Breidablik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

37'

45+5'

57'

63'

63'

K. Kristjánsson← N. Þórhallsson

70'

L. Jeffs← A. Ingason

71'

E. Słupski← Á. Magnússon

71'

Izaro Abella← K. Yaroshenko

71'

K. Steindórsson← G. Eyjólfsson

71'

O. Sigurjónsson← V. Einarsson

71'

S. Sigurðarson← K. Olsen

73'

O. Stefansson

81'

E. Einarsson← K. Pikul

83'

H. Gunnlaugsson← A. Sigurðarson

90+5'

S. Sigurðarson

Throttur

Breidablik

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Einarsson

Hlynsson

Þorsteins

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Jeffs

63'▲K. Kristjánsson←▼N. Þórhallsson

70'▲L. Jeffs←▼A. Ingason

71'▲E. Słupski←▼Á. Magnússon

71'▲Izaro Abella←▼K. Yaroshenko

81'▲E. Einarsson←▼K. Pikul

Throttur Reykjavik substitutes

KristjánssonJeffsSłupskiAbellaEinarssonHilmarssonSigþórsson

Manager: Ó. Þorvaldsson

71'▲K. Steindórsson←▼G. Eyjólfsson

71'▲O. Sigurjónsson←▼V. Einarsson

71'▲S. Sigurðarson←▼K. Olsen

83'▲H. Gunnlaugsson←▼A. Sigurðarson

Breidablik substitutes

SteindórssonSigurjónssonSigurðarsonGunnlaugssonEinarssonMuminovićSvanþórsson