Threave Rovers 6–1 Vale of Leithen: Result & Stats

Threave Rovers

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Vale of Leithen

Kerr 80'

Park 75'

Officer 47', 43'

Irving 40'

Unknown 56'

9/28/2024

FA Cup · 1st RoundMeadow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Threave Rovers72%

×Draw14%

Vale of Leithen14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Threave RoversExpected goals in this matchVale of Leithen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.50

1.58

Threave Rovers

3.50

Vale of Leithen

1.58

Threave Rovers creates 122% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.67

creates per match

1.17

2.00

allows per match

4.33

creates per match

Threave Rovers

2.67

Vale of Leithen

1.17

allows per match

Threave Rovers

2.00

Vale of Leithen

4.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Threave Rovers+0.00on par

Vale of Leithen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Threave Rovers ↓

Vale of Leithen →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–02%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–04%

4–17%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Threave Rovers or draw

86%

Threave Rovers or Vale of Leithen

86%

Draw or Vale of Leithen

28%

Winning margin

Threave Rovers wins by 2+

53%

Vale of Leithen wins by 2+

Team goals

Threave Rovers 1+ goals

97%

Threave Rovers 2+ goals

85%

Threave Rovers 3+ goals

66%

Vale of Leithen 1+ goals

79%

Vale of Leithen 2+ goals

47%

Vale of Leithen 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Threave Rovers (draw refunded)

83%

Vale of Leithen (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Threave Rovers at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Vale of Leithen away — creates 1.17, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Threave Rovers attack 2.67 + Vale of Leithen defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.50

Vale of Leithen attack 1.17 + Threave Rovers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Threave Rovers scores more

72%

level

14%

Vale of Leithen scores more

14%

Threave Rovers at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Threave Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Irving

43'

Officer

47'

Officer

56'

75'

Park

80'

Kerr

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff