Threave Rovers vs Stranraer — FA Cup 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Threave Rovers42%
Stranraer37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 3 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over78
- Under22
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes76
- No24
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Threave Rovers ↓
Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Threave Rovers at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches
Stranraer away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Threave Rovers attack 2.67 + Stranraer defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.13
Stranraer attack 2.00 + Threave Rovers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Threave Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Threave Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Threave Rovers host Stranraer on Friday, 25 October 2024 at 18:45. The match is part of the FA Cup 2019/2020 season.
Threave Rovers 2 – 3 Stranraer
Stranraer beat Threave Rovers 3-2 in FA Cup on October 25, 2024.
Goals: D. Cairnie (41'), R. Irving (54'), R. Edgar (64', 90+6'), D. Lang (79').
The match was played at Meadow Park in Castle Douglas.