Threave Rovers 0–2 Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

Threave Rovers

0 – 2

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

8/31/2019

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundMeadow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Threave Rovers38%

×Draw21%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Threave RoversExpected goals in this matchHill Of Beath Hawthorn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

2.00

Threave Rovers

1.90

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

2.67

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Threave Rovers

2.67

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

2.00

allows per match

Threave Rovers

2.00

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Threave Rovers+0.00on par

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Threave Rovers ↓

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Threave Rovers or draw

59%

Threave Rovers or Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

79%

Draw or Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

62%

Winning margin

Threave Rovers wins by 2+

20%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Threave Rovers 1+ goals

85%

Threave Rovers 2+ goals

56%

Threave Rovers 3+ goals

29%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 1+ goals

86%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 2+ goals

59%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Threave Rovers (draw refunded)

48%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Threave Rovers at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Threave Rovers attack 2.67 + Hill Of Beath Hawthorn defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.90

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn attack 2.00 + Threave Rovers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Threave Rovers scores more

38%

level

21%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn scores more

41%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hill Of Beath Hawthorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff