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Thornton Redbacks vs West Wallsend — NNSW League 1 2026

Thornton Redbacks
Thornton Redbacks
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
West Wallsend
West Wallsend
7/8/2025NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 10Thornton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Thornton Redbacks29%
×Draw21%
West Wallsend50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thornton Redbacks
1.63
West Wallsend
2.19

West Wallsend creates 34% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 28 away

creates per match

Thornton Redbacks
1.43
West Wallsend
1.89

allows per match

Thornton Redbacks
2.48
West Wallsend
1.82

finishing

Thornton Redbacks+0.00on par
West Wallsend+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thornton Redbacks ↓

West Wallsend →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Thornton Redbacks or draw
50%
Thornton Redbacks or West Wallsend
79%
Draw or West Wallsend
71%

Winning margin

Thornton Redbacks wins by 2+
14%
West Wallsend wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Thornton Redbacks 1+ goals
80%
Thornton Redbacks 2+ goals
48%
Thornton Redbacks 3+ goals
22%
West Wallsend 1+ goals
89%
West Wallsend 2+ goals
64%
West Wallsend 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Thornton Redbacks (draw refunded)
36%
West Wallsend (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thornton Redbacks at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.48 · 21 matches

West Wallsend away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thornton Redbacks attack 1.43 + West Wallsend defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.63

West Wallsend attack 1.89 + Thornton Redbacks defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Thornton Redbacks scores more
29%
level
21%
West Wallsend scores more
50%

West Wallsend at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "West Wallsend will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thornton Redbacks vs West Wallsend

West Wallsend beat Thornton Redbacks 4-1 in NNSW League 1 on July 8, 2025.

The match was played at Thornton Park in Thornton.