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Thornton Redbacks vs Kahibah — NNSW League 1 2026

Thornton Redbacks
Thornton Redbacks
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Kahibah
Kahibah
5/31/2025NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 11Thornton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Thornton Redbacks20%
×Draw18%
Kahibah61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thornton Redbacks
1.40
Kahibah
2.52

Kahibah creates 80% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Thornton Redbacks
1.43
Kahibah
2.57

allows per match

Thornton Redbacks
2.48
Kahibah
1.38

finishing

Thornton Redbacks+0.00on par
Kahibah+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thornton Redbacks ↓

Kahibah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Thornton Redbacks or draw
39%
Thornton Redbacks or Kahibah
82%
Draw or Kahibah
80%

Winning margin

Thornton Redbacks wins by 2+
8%
Kahibah wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Thornton Redbacks 1+ goals
75%
Thornton Redbacks 2+ goals
41%
Thornton Redbacks 3+ goals
17%
Kahibah 1+ goals
92%
Kahibah 2+ goals
71%
Kahibah 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Thornton Redbacks (draw refunded)
25%
Kahibah (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thornton Redbacks at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.48 · 21 matches

Kahibah away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thornton Redbacks attack 1.43 + Kahibah defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kahibah attack 2.57 + Thornton Redbacks defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Thornton Redbacks scores more
20%
level
18%
Kahibah scores more
61%

Kahibah at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kahibah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NNSW League 1: Thornton Redbacks 2–4 Kahibah

Kahibah beat Thornton Redbacks 4-2 in NNSW League 1 on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Thornton Park in Thornton.