Thornton Redbacks 2–0 Dudley Redhead United

Thornton Redbacks

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dudley Redhead United

6/14/2025

NNSW League 1 · Round 12Thornton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Thornton Redbacks38%

×Draw22%

Dudley Redhead United40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thornton RedbacksExpected goals in this matchDudley Redhead United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.83

Thornton Redbacks

1.78

Dudley Redhead United

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

1.43

creates per match

1.19

2.48

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Thornton Redbacks

1.43

Dudley Redhead United

1.19

allows per match

Thornton Redbacks

2.48

Dudley Redhead United

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thornton Redbacks+0.00on par

Dudley Redhead United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thornton Redbacks ↓

Dudley Redhead United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Thornton Redbacks or draw

60%

Thornton Redbacks or Dudley Redhead United

78%

Draw or Dudley Redhead United

62%

Winning margin

Thornton Redbacks wins by 2+

20%

Dudley Redhead United wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Thornton Redbacks 1+ goals

83%

Thornton Redbacks 2+ goals

53%

Thornton Redbacks 3+ goals

26%

Dudley Redhead United 1+ goals

84%

Dudley Redhead United 2+ goals

54%

Dudley Redhead United 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Thornton Redbacks (draw refunded)

49%

Dudley Redhead United (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thornton Redbacks at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.48 · 21 matches

Dudley Redhead United away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thornton Redbacks attack 1.43 + Dudley Redhead United defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.78

Dudley Redhead United attack 1.19 + Thornton Redbacks defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Thornton Redbacks scores more

38%

level

22%

Dudley Redhead United scores more

40%

Dudley Redhead United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dudley Redhead United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff