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Thor Akureyri vs Samherjar — Cup 2019

Thor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Samherjar
Samherjar
4/22/2022CupCup · 2nd RoundBoginn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Thor Akureyri92%
×Draw6%
Samherjar3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thor Akureyri
4.46
Samherjar
0.75

Thor Akureyri creates 495% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Thor Akureyri
3.42
Samherjar
0.33

allows per match

Thor Akureyri
1.17
Samherjar
5.50

finishing

Thor Akureyri+0.00on par
Samherjar+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thor Akureyri ↓

Samherjar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (11%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Thor Akureyri or draw
97%
Thor Akureyri or Samherjar
94%
Draw or Samherjar
8%

Winning margin

Thor Akureyri wins by 2+
81%
Samherjar wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Thor Akureyri 1+ goals
99%
Thor Akureyri 2+ goals
92%
Thor Akureyri 3+ goals
79%
Samherjar 1+ goals
53%
Samherjar 2+ goals
17%
Samherjar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Thor Akureyri (draw refunded)
97%
Samherjar (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thor Akureyri at home — creates 3.42, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Samherjar away — creates 0.33, concedes 5.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thor Akureyri attack 3.42 + Samherjar defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 4.46

Samherjar attack 0.33 + Thor Akureyri defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Thor Akureyri scores more
92%
level
6%
Samherjar scores more
3%

Thor Akureyri at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Thor Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thor Akureyri vs Samherjar

Thor Akureyri beat Samherjar 7-0 in Cup on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at Boginn in Akureyri.