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Thor Akureyri vs Kórdrengir — 1. Deild 2018

Thor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kórdrengir
Kórdrengir
6/18/20211. Deild1. Deild · Round 7SaltPay-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Thor Akureyri41%
×Draw24%
Kórdrengir34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thor Akureyri
1.58
Kórdrengir
1.42

Thor Akureyri creates 11% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 22 away

creates per match

Thor Akureyri
1.71
Kórdrengir
1.59

allows per match

Thor Akureyri
1.24
Kórdrengir
1.45

finishing

Thor Akureyri+0.00on par
Kórdrengir+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thor Akureyri ↓

Kórdrengir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Thor Akureyri or draw
66%
Thor Akureyri or Kórdrengir
76%
Draw or Kórdrengir
59%

Winning margin

Thor Akureyri wins by 2+
21%
Kórdrengir wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Thor Akureyri 1+ goals
79%
Thor Akureyri 2+ goals
47%
Thor Akureyri 3+ goals
21%
Kórdrengir 1+ goals
76%
Kórdrengir 2+ goals
41%
Kórdrengir 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Thor Akureyri (draw refunded)
55%
Kórdrengir (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thor Akureyri at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.24 · 87 matches

Kórdrengir away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thor Akureyri attack 1.71 + Kórdrengir defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kórdrengir attack 1.59 + Thor Akureyri defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Thor Akureyri scores more
41%
level
24%
Kórdrengir scores more
34%

Thor Akureyri at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Thor Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Thor Akureyri 0–1 Kórdrengir

Kórdrengir beat Thor Akureyri 1-0 in 1. Deild on June 18, 2021.

The match was played at SaltPay-völlurinn in Akureyri.