Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Thisted FC vs VSK Århus — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Thisted FC
Thisted FC
Preview
11:00
VSK Århus
VSK Århus
10/18/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 12
Big match
37%
VSK Århus
model favours
35%28%37%

VSK Århus win just 15% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Thisted FC35%
×Draw28%
VSK Århus37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thisted FC
1.14
VSK Århus
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 29 away

creates per match

Thisted FC
1.18
VSK Århus
1.14

allows per match

Thisted FC
1.20
VSK Århus
1.10

finishing

Thisted FC+0.00on par
VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thisted FC ↓

VSK Århus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Thisted FC or draw
63%
Thisted FC or VSK Århus
72%
Draw or VSK Århus
65%

Winning margin

Thisted FC wins by 2+
14%
VSK Århus wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Thisted FC 1+ goals
68%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
32%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
11%
VSK Århus 1+ goals
69%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
33%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Thisted FC (draw refunded)
49%
VSK Århus (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thisted FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.20 · 87 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thisted FC attack 1.18 + VSK Århus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

VSK Århus attack 1.14 + Thisted FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Thisted FC scores more
35%
level
28%
VSK Århus scores more
37%

VSK Århus at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
LLLWW
Århus
WWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Thisted FC host VSK Århus

October 18, 2026: Thisted FC take on VSK Århus in 2nd Division - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.