Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Thisted FC vs Nykobing FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Thisted FC
Thisted FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
5/9/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Relegation Round - 4Sparekassen Thy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Thisted FC49%
×Draw24%
Nykobing FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thisted FC
1.67
Nykobing FC
1.17

Thisted FC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 32 away

creates per match

Thisted FC
1.18
Nykobing FC
1.13

allows per match

Thisted FC
1.20
Nykobing FC
2.16

finishing

Thisted FC+0.00on par
Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thisted FC ↓

Nykobing FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Thisted FC or draw
73%
Thisted FC or Nykobing FC
76%
Draw or Nykobing FC
51%

Winning margin

Thisted FC wins by 2+
26%
Nykobing FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Thisted FC 1+ goals
81%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
50%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
23%
Nykobing FC 1+ goals
69%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
33%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Thisted FC (draw refunded)
65%
Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thisted FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.20 · 87 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thisted FC attack 1.18 + Nykobing FC defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.67

Nykobing FC attack 1.13 + Thisted FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Thisted FC scores more
49%
level
24%
Nykobing FC scores more
27%

Thisted FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Thisted FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Thisted FC 1–1 Nykobing FC

Thisted FC and Nykobing FC drew 1-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 9, 2025.

The match was played at Sparekassen Thy Arena in Thisted.