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Thisted FC vs HIK — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Thisted FC
Thisted FC
Preview
12:00
HIK
HIK
4/3/20272nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 22
Big match
45%
Thisted FC
model favours
45%26%29%

Thisted FC have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Thisted FC45%
×Draw26%
HIK29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thisted FC
1.50
HIK
1.16

Thisted FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 82 away

creates per match

Thisted FC
1.18
HIK
1.11

allows per match

Thisted FC
1.20
HIK
1.83

finishing

Thisted FC+0.00on par
HIK+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thisted FC ↓

HIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Thisted FC or draw
71%
Thisted FC or HIK
74%
Draw or HIK
55%

Winning margin

Thisted FC wins by 2+
22%
HIK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Thisted FC 1+ goals
78%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
44%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
19%
HIK 1+ goals
69%
HIK 2+ goals
32%
HIK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Thisted FC (draw refunded)
61%
HIK (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thisted FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.20 · 87 matches

HIK away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.83 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thisted FC attack 1.18 + HIK defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

HIK attack 1.11 + Thisted FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Thisted FC scores more
45%
level
26%
HIK scores more
29%

Thisted FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Thisted FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FC
LLLWW
HIK
DLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thisted FC vs HIK — Match Preview

Thisted FC face HIK on April 3, 2027 in this 2nd Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.