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HIK vs Thisted FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

HIK
HIK
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Thisted FC
Thisted FC
5/31/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Relegation Round - 8Gentofte Sportspark Vest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

HIK39%
×Draw25%
Thisted FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIK
1.44
Thisted FC
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 87 away

creates per match

HIK
1.39
Thisted FC
1.20

allows per match

HIK
1.57
Thisted FC
1.48

finishing

HIK+0.00on par
Thisted FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIK ↓

Thisted FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

HIK or draw
64%
HIK or Thisted FC
75%
Draw or Thisted FC
61%

Winning margin

HIK wins by 2+
18%
Thisted FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

HIK 1+ goals
76%
HIK 2+ goals
42%
HIK 3+ goals
18%
Thisted FC 1+ goals
75%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
40%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

HIK (draw refunded)
52%
Thisted FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIK at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 82 matches

Thisted FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIK attack 1.39 + Thisted FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Thisted FC attack 1.20 + HIK defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

HIK scores more
39%
level
25%
Thisted FC scores more
36%

HIK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "HIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HIK vs Thisted FC

Thisted FC beat HIK 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Gentofte Sportspark Vest in Gentofte.