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Thisted FC vs Aarhus Fremad — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Thisted FC
Thisted FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
9/15/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 7Sparekassen Thy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Thisted FC31%
×Draw26%
Aarhus Fremad43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thisted FC
1.15
Aarhus Fremad
1.41

Aarhus Fremad creates 23% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 82 away

creates per match

Thisted FC
1.18
Aarhus Fremad
1.62

allows per match

Thisted FC
1.20
Aarhus Fremad
1.13

finishing

Thisted FC+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thisted FC ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Thisted FC or draw
57%
Thisted FC or Aarhus Fremad
74%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
69%

Winning margin

Thisted FC wins by 2+
12%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Thisted FC 1+ goals
68%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
32%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
11%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
76%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
41%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Thisted FC (draw refunded)
42%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thisted FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.20 · 87 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thisted FC attack 1.18 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.62 + Thisted FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Thisted FC scores more
31%
level
26%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
43%

Aarhus Fremad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Thisted FC 0–2 Aarhus Fremad

Aarhus Fremad beat Thisted FC 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Sparekassen Thy Arena in Thisted.