Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Thionville Lusitanos vs Biesheim — League #68 2026

Thionville Lusitanos
Thionville Lusitanos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Biesheim
Biesheim
M. Aljic 90'
A. Decherf 84'
B. Seye 75'
2/21/2026League #68League #68 · Group B - 19Stadium Plaine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Thionville Lusitanos36%
×Draw21%
Biesheim43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thionville Lusitanos
1.83
Biesheim
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Thionville Lusitanos
1.00
Biesheim
1.33

allows per match

Thionville Lusitanos
2.67
Biesheim
2.67

finishing

Thionville Lusitanos+0.00on par
Biesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thionville Lusitanos ↓

Biesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Thionville Lusitanos or draw
57%
Thionville Lusitanos or Biesheim
79%
Draw or Biesheim
64%

Winning margin

Thionville Lusitanos wins by 2+
19%
Biesheim wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Thionville Lusitanos 1+ goals
84%
Thionville Lusitanos 2+ goals
54%
Thionville Lusitanos 3+ goals
28%
Biesheim 1+ goals
86%
Biesheim 2+ goals
59%
Biesheim 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Thionville Lusitanos (draw refunded)
46%
Biesheim (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thionville Lusitanos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Biesheim away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thionville Lusitanos attack 1.00 + Biesheim defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Biesheim attack 1.33 + Thionville Lusitanos defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Thionville Lusitanos scores more
36%
level
21%
Biesheim scores more
43%

Biesheim at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Biesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
B. Seye
84'
A. Decherf
90'
M. Aljic
Thionville
Biesheim
J. François
Manager: J. François
Vincent Rychen
Manager: Vincent Rychen

Match Recap: Thionville Lusitanos vs Biesheim

Biesheim beat Thionville Lusitanos 2-1 in League #68 on February 21, 2026.

Goals: B. Seye (75'), A. Decherf (84'), M. Aljic (90').

The match was played at Stadium Plaine in Thionville.