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Thimphu vs Paro — Premier League 2026

Premier LeaguePremier League·2026
Thimphu
Thimphu
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Paro
Paro
Unknown 53'
Unknown 90+1', 78' (OG), 37', 34'
sidiki jawara 32'
Date
Jul 16, 2026, 12:00 PM
Tournament
Premier League

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Thimphu9%
×Draw16%
Paro75%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thimphu
0.66
Paro
2.38

Paro creates 261% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Thimphu
0.75
Paro
3.00

allows per match

Thimphu
1.75
Paro
0.57

finishing

Thimphu+0.00on par
Paro+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thimphu ↓

Paro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–214%
0–311%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Thimphu or draw
25%
Thimphu or Paro
84%
Draw or Paro
91%

Winning margin

Thimphu wins by 2+
2%
Paro wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Thimphu 1+ goals
48%
Thimphu 2+ goals
14%
Thimphu 3+ goals
3%
Paro 1+ goals
91%
Paro 2+ goals
68%
Paro 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Thimphu (draw refunded)
10%
Paro (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thimphu at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Paro away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thimphu attack 0.75 + Paro defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.66

Paro attack 3.00 + Thimphu defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Thimphu scores more
9%
level
16%
Paro scores more
75%

Paro at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Paro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
sidiki jawara
34'
37'
53'
78'
Own goal
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thimphu vs Paro

Paro beat Thimphu 5-1 in Premier League on July 16, 2026.

Goals: sidiki jawara (32'), ? (34', 37', 53', 78' o.g., 90+1').