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Thimphu Raven vs Bhutan U19 — Premier League 2023

Thimphu Raven
Thimphu Raven
FT
0 – 4
Bhutan U19
Bhutan U19
8/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Thimphu Raven26%
×Draw19%
Bhutan U1955%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thimphu Raven
1.78
Bhutan U19
2.58

Bhutan U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

creates per match

Thimphu Raven
1.00
Bhutan U19
1.26

allows per match

Thimphu Raven
3.89
Bhutan U19
2.57

finishing

Thimphu Raven+0.00on par
Bhutan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thimphu Raven ↓

Bhutan U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Thimphu Raven or draw
45%
Thimphu Raven or Bhutan U19
81%
Draw or Bhutan U19
74%

Winning margin

Thimphu Raven wins by 2+
13%
Bhutan U19 wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Thimphu Raven 1+ goals
83%
Thimphu Raven 2+ goals
53%
Thimphu Raven 3+ goals
26%
Bhutan U19 1+ goals
92%
Bhutan U19 2+ goals
72%
Bhutan U19 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Thimphu Raven (draw refunded)
33%
Bhutan U19 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thimphu Raven at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.89 · 9 matches

Bhutan U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.57 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thimphu Raven attack 1.00 + Bhutan U19 defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.78

Bhutan U19 attack 1.26 + Thimphu Raven defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Thimphu Raven scores more
26%
level
19%
Bhutan U19 scores more
55%

Bhutan U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bhutan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thimphu Raven vs Bhutan U19

Bhutan U19 beat Thimphu Raven 4-0 in Premier League on August 1, 2023.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.