Thimphu City 1–1 Paro: Result & Stats

Thimphu City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Paro

11/28/2023

Premier League · Round 9Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Thimphu City34%

×Draw20%

Paro46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thimphu CityExpected goals in this matchParo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

2.41

Thimphu City

2.08

Paro

2.41

Paro creates 16% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 32 away

3.42

creates per match

3.88

0.94

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Thimphu City

3.42

Paro

3.88

allows per match

Thimphu City

0.94

Paro

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thimphu City+0.00on par

Paro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thimphu City ↓

Paro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Thimphu City or draw

54%

Thimphu City or Paro

80%

Draw or Paro

66%

Winning margin

Thimphu City wins by 2+

18%

Paro wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Thimphu City 1+ goals

87%

Thimphu City 2+ goals

61%

Thimphu City 3+ goals

34%

Paro 1+ goals

91%

Paro 2+ goals

69%

Paro 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Thimphu City (draw refunded)

43%

Paro (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thimphu City at home — creates 3.42, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Paro away — creates 3.88, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thimphu City attack 3.42 + Paro defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 2.08

Paro attack 3.88 + Thimphu City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Thimphu City scores more

34%

level

20%

Paro scores more

46%

Paro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Paro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff