Paro 4–1 Thimphu City: Result & Stats

Paro

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Thimphu City

6/16/2024

Premier League · Round 3Woochu Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Paro59%

×Draw17%

Thimphu City24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ParoExpected goals in this matchThimphu City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.15

2.04

Paro

3.15

Thimphu City

2.04

Paro creates 54% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 32 away

4.71

creates per match

3.06

1.03

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Paro

4.71

Thimphu City

3.06

allows per match

Paro

1.03

Thimphu City

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paro+0.00on par

Thimphu City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paro ↓

Thimphu City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Paro or draw

76%

Paro or Thimphu City

83%

Draw or Thimphu City

41%

Winning margin

Paro wins by 2+

40%

Thimphu City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Paro 1+ goals

96%

Paro 2+ goals

81%

Paro 3+ goals

59%

Thimphu City 1+ goals

87%

Thimphu City 2+ goals

60%

Thimphu City 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Paro (draw refunded)

71%

Thimphu City (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paro at home — creates 4.71, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Thimphu City away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paro attack 4.71 + Thimphu City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 3.15

Thimphu City attack 3.06 + Paro defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Paro scores more

59%

level

17%

Thimphu City scores more

24%

Paro at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Paro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff