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Thika United vs Sofapaka — FKF Premier League 2018

Thika United
Thika United
FT
2 – 1
Sofapaka
Sofapaka
4/8/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 10Thika Municipal Stadium (Thika)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Thika United32%
×Draw32%
Sofapaka36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thika United
0.89
Sofapaka
0.98

Sofapaka creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 145 away

creates per match

Thika United
0.63
Sofapaka
0.93

allows per match

Thika United
1.03
Sofapaka
1.15

finishing

Thika United+0.00on par
Sofapaka+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thika United ↓

Sofapaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Thika United or draw
64%
Thika United or Sofapaka
68%
Draw or Sofapaka
68%

Winning margin

Thika United wins by 2+
11%
Sofapaka wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Thika United 1+ goals
59%
Thika United 2+ goals
22%
Thika United 3+ goals
6%
Sofapaka 1+ goals
62%
Sofapaka 2+ goals
26%
Sofapaka 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Thika United (draw refunded)
46%
Sofapaka (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thika United at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Sofapaka away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.15 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thika United attack 0.63 + Sofapaka defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.89

Sofapaka attack 0.93 + Thika United defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Thika United scores more
32%
level
32%
Sofapaka scores more
36%

Sofapaka at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sofapaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Thika United 2–1 Sofapaka

Thika United beat Sofapaka 2-1 in FKF Premier League on April 8, 2018.

The match was played at Thika Municipal Stadium (Thika).