Thika United 1–0 GOR Mahia: Result & Stats

Thika United

FT

1 – 0

GOR Mahia

9/16/2018

FKF Premier League · Round 22Thika Municipal Stadium (Thika)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Thika United21%

×Draw29%

GOR Mahia49%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thika UnitedExpected goals in this matchGOR Mahia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.72

1.26

Thika United

0.72

GOR Mahia

1.26

GOR Mahia creates 75% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 143 away

0.63

creates per match

1.49

1.03

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Thika United

0.63

GOR Mahia

1.49

allows per match

Thika United

1.03

GOR Mahia

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thika United+0.00on par

GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thika United ↓

GOR Mahia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–117%

0–211%

0–35%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Thika United or draw

51%

Thika United or GOR Mahia

71%

Draw or GOR Mahia

79%

Winning margin

Thika United wins by 2+

6%

GOR Mahia wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Thika United 1+ goals

51%

Thika United 2+ goals

16%

Thika United 3+ goals

4%

GOR Mahia 1+ goals

72%

GOR Mahia 2+ goals

36%

GOR Mahia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Thika United (draw refunded)

30%

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thika United at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.80 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thika United attack 0.63 + GOR Mahia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.72

GOR Mahia attack 1.49 + Thika United defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Thika United scores more

21%

level

29%

GOR Mahia scores more

49%

GOR Mahia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff