Thespakusatsu Gunma 0–1 Ventforet Kofu

Thespakusatsu Gunma

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ventforet Kofu

8/3/2024

J2 League · Round 25Shoda Shoyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma28%

×Draw29%

Ventforet Kofu43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thespakusatsu GunmaExpected goals in this matchVentforet Kofu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.25

Thespakusatsu Gunma

0.95

Ventforet Kofu

1.25

Ventforet Kofu creates 32% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 166 away

0.77

creates per match

1.29

1.21

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma

0.77

Ventforet Kofu

1.29

allows per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.21

Ventforet Kofu

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thespakusatsu Gunma ↓

Ventforet Kofu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Thespakusatsu Gunma or draw

57%

Thespakusatsu Gunma or Ventforet Kofu

71%

Draw or Ventforet Kofu

72%

Winning margin

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+

10%

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals

61%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals

25%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals

7%

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals

71%

Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals

36%

Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)

39%

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thespakusatsu Gunma at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.21 · 106 matches

Ventforet Kofu away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 166 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.77 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.95

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.29 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more

28%

level

29%

Ventforet Kofu scores more

43%

Ventforet Kofu at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff