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Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Tokushima Vortis — J2 League 2018

Thespakusatsu Gunma
Thespakusatsu Gunma
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
4/23/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 11Shoda Shoyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma28%
×Draw30%
Tokushima Vortis43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thespakusatsu Gunma
0.90
Tokushima Vortis
1.20

Tokushima Vortis creates 33% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 147 away

creates per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma
0.77
Tokushima Vortis
1.19

allows per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.21
Tokushima Vortis
1.02

finishing

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par
Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thespakusatsu Gunma ↓

Tokushima Vortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Thespakusatsu Gunma or draw
57%
Thespakusatsu Gunma or Tokushima Vortis
70%
Draw or Tokushima Vortis
72%

Winning margin

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+
9%
Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals
59%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals
23%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals
6%
Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
70%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
34%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)
39%
Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thespakusatsu Gunma at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.21 · 106 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.77 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.90

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more
28%
level
30%
Tokushima Vortis scores more
43%

Tokushima Vortis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Tokushima Vortis

Thespakusatsu Gunma and Tokushima Vortis drew 0-0 in J2 League on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Shoda Shoyu Stadium in Maebashi.