Thespakusatsu Gunma 0–1 Tochigi SC: Result & Stats

Thespakusatsu Gunma

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tochigi SC

I. Kondo 9' (OG)

8/23/2025

League #100 · Round 24Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma39%

×Draw29%

Tochigi SC31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thespakusatsu GunmaExpected goals in this matchTochigi SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.99

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.15

Tochigi SC

0.99

Thespakusatsu Gunma creates 16% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

0.86

1.13

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.00

Tochigi SC

0.86

allows per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.13

Tochigi SC

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Tochigi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thespakusatsu Gunma ↓

Tochigi SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Thespakusatsu Gunma or draw

69%

Thespakusatsu Gunma or Tochigi SC

71%

Draw or Tochigi SC

61%

Winning margin

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+

16%

Tochigi SC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals

68%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals

32%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals

11%

Tochigi SC 1+ goals

63%

Tochigi SC 2+ goals

26%

Tochigi SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)

56%

Tochigi SC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thespakusatsu Gunma at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Tochigi SC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 1.00 + Tochigi SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Tochigi SC attack 0.86 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more

39%

level

29%

Tochigi SC scores more

31%

Thespakusatsu Gunma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Thespakusatsu Gunma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

I. KondoOwn goal

48'

K. Kazama

60'

K. Fujiwara

61'

H. Takahashi← R. Kawana

61'

K. Otabor← T. Igarashi

62'

R. Fujimura← G. Sehata

62'

T. Kagami← S. Tanaka

73'

R. Mori← K. Fukumori

74'

K. Yano← R. Ota

77'

77'

82'

83'

86'

Y. Takazawa← Y. Nishimura

90+7'

H. Yoshino← K. Fujiwara

Thespakusatsu

Tochigi

1

Kawata

8

▼

Fukumori

25

Iwasaki

11

Aoshima

88

▼

Uchida

3

Omori

77

▼

Fujiwara

18

▼

Kawana

81

Nakano

32

▼

Ota

10

▼

Igarashi

13

🥅

Kondo

30

Koyanagi

3

▼

Ohata

22

Takahashi

38

▼

Konishi

36

Adachi

37

▼

Sehata

18

▼

Tanaka

32

Kawata

7

▼

Nishimura

15

Kazama

Manager: Masaru Okita

62'▲R. Fujimura←▼G. Sehata

62'▲T. Kagami←▼S. Tanaka

77'▲S. Kotake←▼R. Ohata

77'▲S. Aoki←▼H. Konishi

86'▲Y. Takazawa←▼Y. Nishimura

Thespakusatsu Gunma substitutes

21Je-hee43Nose8Yamauchi27Fujimura49Kotake9Aoki10Takazawa11Kagami20Shimokawa

Manager: Shinji Kobayashi

61'▲H. Takahashi←▼R. Kawana

61'▲K. Otabor←▼T. Igarashi

73'▲R. Mori←▼K. Fukumori

74'▲K. Yano←▼R. Ota

83'▲Y. Kimura←▼K. Uchida

90+7'▲H. Yoshino←▼K. Fujiwara

Tochigi SC substitutes

27Tanno37Kimura22Takahashi5Mori4Sato47Yoshino80Otabor14Diamanka29Yano