Thespakusatsu Gunma 2–3 Roasso Kumamoto

Thespakusatsu Gunma

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Roasso Kumamoto

R. Kabayama 62'

S. Hiramatsu 29'

W. Iwashita 90+3'

C. Konagaya 43', 33'

9/29/2024

J2 League · Round 33Shoda Shoyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma35%

×Draw27%

Roasso Kumamoto38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thespakusatsu GunmaExpected goals in this matchRoasso Kumamoto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.27

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.22

Roasso Kumamoto

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 28 away

0.89

creates per match

1.32

1.22

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma

0.89

Roasso Kumamoto

1.32

allows per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.22

Roasso Kumamoto

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thespakusatsu Gunma ↓

Roasso Kumamoto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Thespakusatsu Gunma or draw

62%

Thespakusatsu Gunma or Roasso Kumamoto

73%

Draw or Roasso Kumamoto

65%

Winning margin

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+

15%

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals

70%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals

34%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals

12%

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals

72%

Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals

36%

Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)

48%

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thespakusatsu Gunma at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Roasso Kumamoto away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.89 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.22

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.32 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more

35%

level

27%

Roasso Kumamoto scores more

38%

Roasso Kumamoto at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Roasso Kumamoto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

S. Hiramatsu↳ R. Kawamoto

33'

C. Konagaya↳ Y. Omoto

43'

C. Konagaya

61'

T. Amagasa← K. Kazama

61'

A. Kawata← S. Hiramatsu

62'

R. Kabayama

63'

Y. Takemoto← R. Matsuoka

76'

T. Amagasa

80'

S. Kitagawa← R. Kabayama

80'

K. Fujii← Y. Omoto

90+2'

R. Tagashira← C. Kawakami

90+3'

W. Iwashita↳ S. Mishima

Thespakusatsu

Roasso

1

Tashiro

13

⚽

Iwashita

24

Ezaki

8

Kamimura

16

▼

Matsuoka

9

A

▼

Omoto

15

A

Mishima

3

Onishi

21

Toyoda

19

⚽2

18

21

34

22

15

▼

Kazama

44

Semba

5

▼

Kawakami

17

Yamanaka

37

Sehata

23

⚽

▼

Hiramatsu

14

A

Kawamoto

28

⚽

▼

Kabayama

Manager: A. Muto

61'▲T. Amagasa←▼K. Kazama

61'▲A. Kawata←▼S. Hiramatsu

80'▲S. Kitagawa←▼R. Kabayama

90+2'▲R. Tagashira←▼C. Kawakami

Thespakusatsu Gunma substitutes

6Amagasa32Kawata9Kitagawa29Tagashira42Ishii7Wada24Sakai

Manager: T. Oki

63'▲Y. Takemoto←▼R. Matsuoka

80'▲K. Fujii←▼Y. Omoto

Roasso Kumamoto substitutes

7Takemoto17Fujii30Higashiyama20Osaki5Abe2Kuroki23Sato