Thespakusatsu Gunma 0–0 Kataller Toyama

Thespakusatsu Gunma

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kataller Toyama

10/27/2019

League #100 · Round 28Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma (Maebashi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma38%

×Draw31%

Kataller Toyama31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thespakusatsu GunmaExpected goals in this matchKataller Toyama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.94

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.06

Kataller Toyama

0.94

Thespakusatsu Gunma creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

0.75

1.13

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.00

Kataller Toyama

0.75

allows per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.13

Kataller Toyama

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Kataller Toyama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thespakusatsu Gunma ↓

Kataller Toyama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Thespakusatsu Gunma or draw

69%

Thespakusatsu Gunma or Kataller Toyama

69%

Draw or Kataller Toyama

62%

Winning margin

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+

15%

Kataller Toyama wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals

65%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals

29%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals

9%

Kataller Toyama 1+ goals

61%

Kataller Toyama 2+ goals

24%

Kataller Toyama 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)

55%

Kataller Toyama (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thespakusatsu Gunma at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Kataller Toyama away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 1.00 + Kataller Toyama defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kataller Toyama attack 0.75 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more

38%

level

31%

Kataller Toyama scores more

31%

Thespakusatsu Gunma at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Thespakusatsu Gunma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

S. Takahashi← Y. Sasaki

70'

T. Iwata← S. Okada

71'

N. Shina← T. Usui

80'

Y. Himeno← M. Yoshida

83'

I. Sasaki← H. Otani

Thespakusatsu

Kataller

1

19

5

2

20

7

▼

Sasaki

6

▼

24

14

37

27

▼

23

32

2

13

24

39

19

▼

Yoshida

6

Sato

14

Tanaka

9

▼

Okada

7

Kato

Manager: K. Nuno

70'▲T. Iwata←▼S. Okada

80'▲Y. Himeno←▼M. Yoshida

Thespakusatsu Gunma substitutes

20Iwata30Himeno8Kubota15Kinjo21Chol-Ho22Iino28Fukuda

Manager: R. Adachi

61'▲S. Takahashi←▼Y. Sasaki

71'▲N. Shina←▼T. Usui

83'▲I. Sasaki←▼H. Otani

Kataller Toyama substitutes

8Takahashi22Shina13Sasaki3Dai15Lucas17Inaba21Ota