Thespakusatsu Gunma 1–3 JEF United Chiba

Thespakusatsu Gunma

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

JEF United Chiba

3/10/2024

J2 League · Round 3Shoda Shoyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma30%

×Draw29%

JEF United Chiba41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thespakusatsu GunmaExpected goals in this matchJEF United Chiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.22

Thespakusatsu Gunma

0.99

JEF United Chiba

1.22

JEF United Chiba creates 23% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 165 away

0.78

creates per match

1.23

1.21

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma

0.78

JEF United Chiba

1.23

allows per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.21

JEF United Chiba

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

JEF United Chiba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thespakusatsu Gunma ↓

JEF United Chiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Thespakusatsu Gunma or draw

59%

Thespakusatsu Gunma or JEF United Chiba

71%

Draw or JEF United Chiba

70%

Winning margin

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+

11%

JEF United Chiba wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals

63%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals

26%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals

8%

JEF United Chiba 1+ goals

70%

JEF United Chiba 2+ goals

34%

JEF United Chiba 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)

42%

JEF United Chiba (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thespakusatsu Gunma at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

JEF United Chiba away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 165 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.78 + JEF United Chiba defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.99

JEF United Chiba attack 1.23 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more

30%

level

29%

JEF United Chiba scores more

41%

JEF United Chiba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "JEF United Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff