Thespakusatsu Gunma vs FC Gifu — League #1235 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Thespakusatsu Gunma56%
FC Gifu24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Thespakusatsu Gunma creates 59% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over70
- Under30
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes67
- No33
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Thespakusatsu Gunma ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Thespakusatsu Gunma at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches
FC Gifu away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 2.80 + FC Gifu defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.23
FC Gifu attack 1.00 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Thespakusatsu Gunma at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Thespakusatsu Gunma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Ventforet Kofu
Consadole Sapporo
Albirex Niigata
Omiya Ardija
Fujieda MYFC
Tokushima Vortis
Sagan Tosu
Iwaki
Vegalta Sendai
Blaublitz Akita
Kataller Toyama
Kochi United
Kamatamare Sanuki
Renofa Yamaguchi
Ehime FC
Jubilo Iwata
Sagamihara
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Kanazawa
Kagoshima United
Nara ClubThespakusatsu Gunma
Osaka
Fukushima United
Tochigi SC
Imabari
Kitakyushu
Tochigi City
Matsumoto Yamaga
Gainare TottoriFC Gifu
Parceiro Nagano
Roasso Kumamoto
Biwako Shiga
Shonan Bellmare
FC Ryukyu
Yokohama FC
Vanraure Hachinohe
Montedio Yamagata
Oita TrinitaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Thespakusatsu Gunma host FC Gifu on Sunday, 31 May 2026 at 05:00. The match is part of the League #1235 2026/2027 season.
League #1235: Thespakusatsu Gunma 0–1 FC Gifu
FC Gifu beat Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-0 in League #1235 on May 31, 2026.
Goals: Mun In-Ju (26').
The match was played at Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma in Maebashi.