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Thes Sport vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar — League #487 2026

Thes Sport
Thes Sport
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
C. Mateso-Liongola 10'
12/5/2025League #487League #487 · VV - 15Gemeentelijk Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Thes Sport53%
×Draw21%
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thes Sport
2.08
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
1.42

Thes Sport creates 46% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Thes Sport
1.50
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
1.67

allows per match

Thes Sport
1.17
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
2.67

finishing

Thes Sport+0.00on par
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thes Sport ↓

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Thes Sport or draw
74%
Thes Sport or Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
79%
Draw or Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
47%

Winning margin

Thes Sport wins by 2+
31%
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Thes Sport 1+ goals
87%
Thes Sport 2+ goals
61%
Thes Sport 3+ goals
34%
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 1+ goals
76%
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 2+ goals
41%
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Thes Sport (draw refunded)
67%
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thes Sport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thes Sport attack 1.50 + Lyra-Lierse Berlaar defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar attack 1.67 + Thes Sport defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Thes Sport scores more
53%
level
21%
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar scores more
26%

Thes Sport at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Thes Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
C. Mateso-Liongola
Thes
Lyra-Lierse
J. Lauryssen
Manager: J. Lauryssen
T. Proost
Manager: T. Proost

Match Recap: Thes Sport vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar

Thes Sport beat Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 1-0 in League #487 on December 5, 2025.

Goals: C. Mateso-Liongola (10').

The match was played at Gemeentelijk Sportpark in Tessenderlo.