Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

The Villages vs Florida Elite — USL League Two 2018

The Villages
The Villages
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Florida Elite
Florida Elite
6/21/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 11The Villages Polo Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

The Villages61%
×Draw21%
Florida Elite19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Villages
2.10
Florida Elite
1.08

The Villages creates 94% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 27 away

creates per match

The Villages
2.80
Florida Elite
1.37

allows per match

The Villages
0.80
Florida Elite
1.41

finishing

The Villages+0.00on par
Florida Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Villages ↓

Florida Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

The Villages or draw
81%
The Villages or Florida Elite
79%
Draw or Florida Elite
39%

Winning margin

The Villages wins by 2+
37%
Florida Elite wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

The Villages 1+ goals
88%
The Villages 2+ goals
62%
The Villages 3+ goals
35%
Florida Elite 1+ goals
66%
Florida Elite 2+ goals
29%
Florida Elite 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

The Villages (draw refunded)
76%
Florida Elite (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Villages at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Florida Elite away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Villages attack 2.80 + Florida Elite defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 2.10

Florida Elite attack 1.37 + The Villages defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

The Villages scores more
61%
level
21%
Florida Elite scores more
19%

The Villages at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "The Villages will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: The Villages 1–2 Florida Elite

Florida Elite beat The Villages 2-1 in USL League Two on June 21, 2023.

The match was played at The Villages Polo Field in The Villages, Florida.