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The Town vs Colorado Rapids II — MLS Next Pro 2022

The Town
The Town
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Colorado Rapids II
Colorado Rapids IIadvanced
10/27/2025MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Quarter-finalsPayPal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

The Town55%
×Draw21%
Colorado Rapids II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Town
2.11
Colorado Rapids II
1.34

The Town creates 57% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 51 away

creates per match

The Town
2.22
Colorado Rapids II
1.71

allows per match

The Town
0.98
Colorado Rapids II
2.00

finishing

The Town+0.00on par
Colorado Rapids II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Town ↓

Colorado Rapids II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

The Town or draw
76%
The Town or Colorado Rapids II
79%
Draw or Colorado Rapids II
45%

Winning margin

The Town wins by 2+
33%
Colorado Rapids II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

The Town 1+ goals
88%
The Town 2+ goals
62%
The Town 3+ goals
35%
Colorado Rapids II 1+ goals
74%
Colorado Rapids II 2+ goals
39%
Colorado Rapids II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

The Town (draw refunded)
69%
Colorado Rapids II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Town at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

Colorado Rapids II away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.00 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Town attack 2.22 + Colorado Rapids II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Colorado Rapids II attack 1.71 + The Town defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

The Town scores more
55%
level
21%
Colorado Rapids II scores more
24%

The Town at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "The Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: The Town 2–2 Colorado Rapids II

The Town and Colorado Rapids II drew 2-2 in MLS Next Pro on October 27, 2025.

The match was played at PayPal Park.