The Strongest 4–1 Vaca Díez: Result & Stats

The Strongest

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Vaca Díez

5/21/2023

Primera División · Round 14Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

The Strongest72%

×Draw16%

Vaca Díez12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The StrongestExpected goals in this matchVaca Díez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

0.96

The Strongest

2.60

Vaca Díez

0.96

The Strongest creates 171% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 16 away

2.77

creates per match

1.00

0.92

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

The Strongest

2.77

Vaca Díez

1.00

allows per match

The Strongest

0.92

Vaca Díez

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

The Strongest+0.00on par

Vaca Díez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Strongest ↓

Vaca Díez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

The Strongest or draw

88%

The Strongest or Vaca Díez

84%

Draw or Vaca Díez

28%

Winning margin

The Strongest wins by 2+

50%

Vaca Díez wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

The Strongest 1+ goals

92%

The Strongest 2+ goals

73%

The Strongest 3+ goals

47%

Vaca Díez 1+ goals

62%

Vaca Díez 2+ goals

25%

Vaca Díez 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

The Strongest (draw refunded)

86%

Vaca Díez (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Strongest at home — creates 2.77, concedes 0.92 · 133 matches

Vaca Díez away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Strongest attack 2.77 + Vaca Díez defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.60

Vaca Díez attack 1.00 + The Strongest defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

The Strongest scores more

72%

level

16%

Vaca Díez scores more

12%

The Strongest at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "The Strongest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff