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The Strongest vs Deportivo Tachira FC — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

The Strongest
The Strongest
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
V. Abrego 82' (pen)
J. Arrascaita 56' (pen)
C. Calzadilla 63'
2/4/2026CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Qualification Round 1Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

The Strongest73%
×Draw18%
Deportivo Tachira FC9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Strongest
2.20
Deportivo Tachira FC
0.63

The Strongest creates 249% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

The Strongest
1.83
Deportivo Tachira FC
0.64

allows per match

The Strongest
0.61
Deportivo Tachira FC
2.57

finishing

The Strongest+0.00on par
Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Strongest ↓

Deportivo Tachira FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

The Strongest or draw
91%
The Strongest or Deportivo Tachira FC
82%
Draw or Deportivo Tachira FC
27%

Winning margin

The Strongest wins by 2+
49%
Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

The Strongest 1+ goals
89%
The Strongest 2+ goals
64%
The Strongest 3+ goals
37%
Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
47%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
13%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

The Strongest (draw refunded)
89%
Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Strongest at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Deportivo Tachira FC away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Strongest attack 1.83 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.20

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 0.64 + The Strongest defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

The Strongest scores more
73%
level
18%
Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
9%

The Strongest at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "The Strongest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
J. ArrascaitaThe StrongestThe Strongest · M
8.3

Match Events

20'
Adalberto Peñaranda
41'
Adrián EstacioGoal cancelled
46'
C. Roca← K. Romay
55'
Jesús Camargo
56'
Raúl Castro
56'
Carlos Calzadilla
56'
J. ArrascaitaPenalty
63'
C. Calzadilla↳ J. Villalpando
64'
O. Hernandez← G. Lozano
64'
L. Zuniga← D. Alfonzo
68'
K. F. Salvatierra Flores← J. Bustos
69'
V. Abrego← C. Algaranaz
77'
Franco Provenzano
82'
V. AbregoPenalty
84'
A. Oliveros← A. Penaranda
84'
J. Balza← J. Villalpando
90+3'
J. Welch← R. Castro
90+3'
F. Quaglio← C. Ventura
90'
L. Gonzalez← C. Calzadilla

Possession

78%The

Shots

27The

Pass accuracy

61%The

Statistics

TheDeportivo
Overview
78%Possession22%
27Total Shots10
2.36Expected Goals (xG)0.94
8Corners2
12Fouls11
Shots
27Total Shots10
8On Target4
16Off Target3
3Blocked3
9Inside Box4
18Outside Box6
Passing
78%Possession22%
510Total Passes145
451Accurate Passes81
88%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
-0.13Goals Prevented-0.13
Discipline
12Fouls11
1Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: The Strongest 2–1 Deportivo Tachira FC

The Strongest beat Deportivo Tachira FC 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on February 4, 2026.

Goals: J. Arrascaita (56' pen), C. Calzadilla (63'), V. Abrego (82' pen).

The Strongest controlled possession (78%) and registered 27 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz.