Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

The Strongest vs Bolívar — Primera División 2026

The Strongest
The Strongest
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Bolívar
Bolívar
11/30/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 26Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

The Strongest51%
×Draw21%
Bolívar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Strongest
2.05
Bolívar
1.46

The Strongest creates 40% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 135 away

creates per match

The Strongest
2.77
Bolívar
2.01

allows per match

The Strongest
0.92
Bolívar
1.33

finishing

The Strongest+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Strongest ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

The Strongest or draw
73%
The Strongest or Bolívar
79%
Draw or Bolívar
49%

Winning margin

The Strongest wins by 2+
30%
Bolívar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

The Strongest 1+ goals
87%
The Strongest 2+ goals
61%
The Strongest 3+ goals
33%
Bolívar 1+ goals
77%
Bolívar 2+ goals
43%
Bolívar 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

The Strongest (draw refunded)
65%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Strongest at home — creates 2.77, concedes 0.92 · 133 matches

Bolívar away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Strongest attack 2.77 + Bolívar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.05

Bolívar attack 2.01 + The Strongest defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

The Strongest scores more
51%
level
21%
Bolívar scores more
27%

The Strongest at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "The Strongest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: The Strongest vs Bolívar

Bolívar beat The Strongest 3-2 in Primera División on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz.