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The Belval Belvaux vs UNA Strassen — Cup 2020

The Belval Belvaux
The Belval Belvaux
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
UNA Strassen
UNA Strassenadvanced
11/9/2025CupCup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

The Belval Belvaux21%
×Draw17%
UNA Strassen62%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Belval Belvaux
1.76
UNA Strassen
3.04

UNA Strassen creates 73% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

The Belval Belvaux
2.38
UNA Strassen
4.08

allows per match

The Belval Belvaux
2.00
UNA Strassen
1.15

finishing

The Belval Belvaux+0.00on par
UNA Strassen+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Belval Belvaux ↓

UNA Strassen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

The Belval Belvaux or draw
38%
The Belval Belvaux or UNA Strassen
83%
Draw or UNA Strassen
79%

Winning margin

The Belval Belvaux wins by 2+
10%
UNA Strassen wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

The Belval Belvaux 1+ goals
83%
The Belval Belvaux 2+ goals
52%
The Belval Belvaux 3+ goals
26%
UNA Strassen 1+ goals
95%
UNA Strassen 2+ goals
80%
UNA Strassen 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

The Belval Belvaux (draw refunded)
25%
UNA Strassen (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Belval Belvaux at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

UNA Strassen away — creates 4.08, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Belval Belvaux attack 2.38 + UNA Strassen defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.76

UNA Strassen attack 4.08 + The Belval Belvaux defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

The Belval Belvaux scores more
21%
level
17%
UNA Strassen scores more
62%

UNA Strassen at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "UNA Strassen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

The Belval Belvaux 2 – 4 UNA Strassen

UNA Strassen beat The Belval Belvaux 4-2 in Cup on November 9, 2025.